MINGKWAN SAENGSUWAN OUSTED FOR YINGLUCK SHINAWATRA

As I predicted early in the Thai Election race Mingkwan Saengsuwan has failed to satisfy Puea Thai Party leader Thaksin Shinawatra.

The battle is now on for control of Puea Thai and that has become the most interesting contest in Thailand right now as the election will result in a strong win for Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Abhisit Vejjajiva was assured victory once Thaksin Shinawatra proclaimed to the world he was well and truly in charge at Puea Thai.

The proclamation made victory for Puea Thai an impossibility, Thaksin Shinawatra jumped bail and has been sentenced to 2 years jail, he was found guilty of corruption and about $1.4bUSD was confiscated.

Given these are the facts in the case, even if the charming and talented Yingluck Shinawatra was to perform a miracle and win the vote, that vote, the Puea Thai Party and Yingluck would face a barrage of court cases they could not win.

1. Thaksin Shinawatra is barred from local politics, his involvement with Puea Thai may make the party illegal.

2. Where is Puea Thai Party funding coming from?, any of that funding traced back to Thaksin would leave the Party facing a ban from politics.

3. What is the source of Yinglucks funds and can they be linked to Thaksin making her chance to run the nation impossible.

Abhisit’s only danger is if Mingkwan Saengsuwan is ousted and forms his own party with his supporters, unlike Puea Thai, Mingkwan Saengsuwan has an platform and policies.

Abhisit is expected to dissolve parliament in early May, paving the way for polls by either late June or early July. Preliminary opinion polls show a neck-and-neck race, though no party is expected to win an outright majority and would likely require smaller coalition partners to form a government.

Puea Thai will remain marginalized until they end their relationship with Thaksin Shinawatra.

Korbsak Sabhavasu, the Democrat’s top election strategist, predicts his party will fare better than it did in 2007, when it placed second to the Puea Thai’s Thaksin-aligned predecessor, the People’s Power Party. He believes the Puea Thai’s leadership crisis has worked to the Democrat’s and Abhisit’s electoral advantage. Recent electoral amendments that call for more party list and fewer constituency parliamentarians and ongoing gerrymandering are also expected to benefit Democrat candidates, he said.

The party is riding a high economic tide, with gross domestic product growth bouncing from -2.3% in 2009 to 7.8% last year – though rising inflation in recent months has taken much of the shine off that credential. Korbsak believes that the government’s pro-poor policies, including a rice price support scheme for farmers, monthly payments to the elderly and a raft of price caps and subsidies, will dull the appeal of Thaksin’s past populist offerings and win his party more grass-roots support.